alisa
01-20 03:44 PM
This is all for EB-3.
I think this is the best case scenario.
Pardon my ignorance, but I am assuming that EB-2 eats up from EB-3's numbers, and so EB-2 wait times will be better than what is estimated here for EB-3, at the expense of the EB-3 waiting times ofcourse.
For India:
Depletion_rate = 10500/year
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year
For ROW:
Depletion_rate = 25000/year (Kinda curves-fits to retire all 2001 backlog by 2006, and 2002 backlog by 2008)
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year (Estimated to be the same as that of India)
All numbers rounded off. No
For 2001: Year_current = 2001 + (123194/Depletion_rate)
For 2002: Year_current = 2002 + (160274/Depletion_rate)
For 2003 and later
Year_current = Year_applied + ( (Year_applied-2002)*(Accumulation_rate-Depletion_rate) + 160274) / Depletion_rate
Here are the results. YA is year applied. YC is Year your PD will be current.
No processing delay assumed.
...........India.. ROW
D_rate 10000 25000
A_rate 19500 19500
YA YC YC
2001 2013 2006
2002 2018 2008
2003 2020 2009
2004 2022 2010
2005 2024 2011
2006 2026 2012
2007 2028 2012
2008 2030 2013
2009 2032 2014
2010 2034 2015
I am open to suggestions on how this model can be improved.
If this model, and these estimates are reasonably accurate, lets come out with our own visa bulletin.
I think this is the best case scenario.
Pardon my ignorance, but I am assuming that EB-2 eats up from EB-3's numbers, and so EB-2 wait times will be better than what is estimated here for EB-3, at the expense of the EB-3 waiting times ofcourse.
For India:
Depletion_rate = 10500/year
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year
For ROW:
Depletion_rate = 25000/year (Kinda curves-fits to retire all 2001 backlog by 2006, and 2002 backlog by 2008)
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year (Estimated to be the same as that of India)
All numbers rounded off. No
For 2001: Year_current = 2001 + (123194/Depletion_rate)
For 2002: Year_current = 2002 + (160274/Depletion_rate)
For 2003 and later
Year_current = Year_applied + ( (Year_applied-2002)*(Accumulation_rate-Depletion_rate) + 160274) / Depletion_rate
Here are the results. YA is year applied. YC is Year your PD will be current.
No processing delay assumed.
...........India.. ROW
D_rate 10000 25000
A_rate 19500 19500
YA YC YC
2001 2013 2006
2002 2018 2008
2003 2020 2009
2004 2022 2010
2005 2024 2011
2006 2026 2012
2007 2028 2012
2008 2030 2013
2009 2032 2014
2010 2034 2015
I am open to suggestions on how this model can be improved.
If this model, and these estimates are reasonably accurate, lets come out with our own visa bulletin.
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nojoke
09-17 08:28 PM
Goldman Sachs is next. Then WaMu + there will be bank runs. It doesn't look good. We will probably see car makers in line. Home builders will be next. Dell, HP is laying off. We are totally sc----d. We have no hope of GC. We will be lucky to hold on to our jobs.:(
kopra
09-20 05:15 PM
I Agree that the economy is in a mess. But i wouldnt completly blame the Greedy CEO's and board of directors. Some part of this is with the common people . Many of these people took those fancy loans thinking that by buying a million dollar home ( even though they cant afford it) and selling it after an year for 2 million dollars created this issue. Now their debt is our ( tax payers) debt as they walked out .
With the new proposal of Fed pumping in 700 Billion dollars to recuse all these companies will cause inflation and prices will skyrocket.
As a Side note, many immigrants will be going back to their home country just bacause they cant afford these. Numbersusa will be happy as the "numbers" will be going down...
To summarize this briefly.
The rescue plan = Transfer the "crap" from the balance sheet of the banks to the balance sheet of the US gov't and taxpayers. The government is buying rotting potatos for cold hard cash.
Benefits are nearer term, Consequences are longer term.
Consequesces will be:
1) Bigger deficits, budget especially
2) Less Gov't investments in infrastructure, healthcare, education etc. As the money is needed to feed the interest repayments and other obligations.
3) Higher interest rates for everything from mortgages, credit cards auto loans student loans...... you name it.
4) Higher taxes, federal and state and city.
5) Lower US dollar and higher inflation.
Unfortunately for us the recklessness of the management of the economy of this decade will be felt as a drag on progress for a good part our working lifetimes. This was a sad and unnecessary development brought about by pure greed and an ineffective government.
With the new proposal of Fed pumping in 700 Billion dollars to recuse all these companies will cause inflation and prices will skyrocket.
As a Side note, many immigrants will be going back to their home country just bacause they cant afford these. Numbersusa will be happy as the "numbers" will be going down...
To summarize this briefly.
The rescue plan = Transfer the "crap" from the balance sheet of the banks to the balance sheet of the US gov't and taxpayers. The government is buying rotting potatos for cold hard cash.
Benefits are nearer term, Consequences are longer term.
Consequesces will be:
1) Bigger deficits, budget especially
2) Less Gov't investments in infrastructure, healthcare, education etc. As the money is needed to feed the interest repayments and other obligations.
3) Higher interest rates for everything from mortgages, credit cards auto loans student loans...... you name it.
4) Higher taxes, federal and state and city.
5) Lower US dollar and higher inflation.
Unfortunately for us the recklessness of the management of the economy of this decade will be felt as a drag on progress for a good part our working lifetimes. This was a sad and unnecessary development brought about by pure greed and an ineffective government.
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uma001
12-21 04:21 PM
This is from Murthy chat.
Question: If in the past I have been out of H1B status for 6 months (I-94 not expired), is this going to hurt my GC (or any new petitions to change / extend / adjust status)?
Answer: A person who fails to maintain status for over 180 days may have a problem obtaining the approval of the I-485, which allows a maximum of 180 days for one to be out of status under Section 245(k) of the INA, unless the person is covered under 245(i) of the INA. Sometimes, though, the fault of the employer in not paying the salary while the person is considered an employee may not pose a problem but at other times it may pose a problem. Not having pay stubs will certainly adversely impact the ability to obtain an extension or change of status from the USCIS. Jun-20-2005.
:mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:
Thats for those who are still in US. You have been put of US and reentered , so dont worry...Chill out
Question: If in the past I have been out of H1B status for 6 months (I-94 not expired), is this going to hurt my GC (or any new petitions to change / extend / adjust status)?
Answer: A person who fails to maintain status for over 180 days may have a problem obtaining the approval of the I-485, which allows a maximum of 180 days for one to be out of status under Section 245(k) of the INA, unless the person is covered under 245(i) of the INA. Sometimes, though, the fault of the employer in not paying the salary while the person is considered an employee may not pose a problem but at other times it may pose a problem. Not having pay stubs will certainly adversely impact the ability to obtain an extension or change of status from the USCIS. Jun-20-2005.
:mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:
Thats for those who are still in US. You have been put of US and reentered , so dont worry...Chill out
more...
3d Nirvana
02-27 08:28 PM
You can also use Mental Rey, and check the "final gather" option. Make sure when you use it you set the rays down to like 10 or 20, or it'll take forever to render.
This will actually make all objects emit a certain amount of light depending on their brightness. For example, a stone wall will not make any noticeable light, but a bright white ball (a light bulb) will act as a omni light. I use this in almost all my renders to achieve a more realistic scene.
That shader glow thing isn't what he wants I think. To add it though, open the attributes of the material, and under the special effects menu you just increase the value from 0. That does not make the object a light though, it adds a glow to the object in post (after the render), and so it does no make any actual light. .... i might be thinking of some other glow thing, soulty's way might work as well
I will start my subway soon guys! I love the entries so far! Keep it up!
Cheers!
3dnirvana
This will actually make all objects emit a certain amount of light depending on their brightness. For example, a stone wall will not make any noticeable light, but a bright white ball (a light bulb) will act as a omni light. I use this in almost all my renders to achieve a more realistic scene.
That shader glow thing isn't what he wants I think. To add it though, open the attributes of the material, and under the special effects menu you just increase the value from 0. That does not make the object a light though, it adds a glow to the object in post (after the render), and so it does no make any actual light. .... i might be thinking of some other glow thing, soulty's way might work as well
I will start my subway soon guys! I love the entries so far! Keep it up!
Cheers!
3dnirvana
abhijitp
07-25 05:14 PM
This is not new but only Lawyers and the employers who filed your GC knows what position and job duties on which they applied your GC.
Position and job duties on which they applied your GC = whatever they said in your PERM/ labor cert application. If they make a change to that during the I-140 or I-485 stage, that itself will lead to RFE, if not to rejection! Some of us may not have the copy of the labor cert/PERM approval, but if so, one should try to look for the form that you (hopefully) reviewed during the first stage. For PERM this is ETA form 9089.
Position and job duties on which they applied your GC = whatever they said in your PERM/ labor cert application. If they make a change to that during the I-140 or I-485 stage, that itself will lead to RFE, if not to rejection! Some of us may not have the copy of the labor cert/PERM approval, but if so, one should try to look for the form that you (hopefully) reviewed during the first stage. For PERM this is ETA form 9089.
more...
ramus
07-03 07:58 AM
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
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seeker999
08-11 08:09 AM
I am in...
What next ?
What next ?
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friend_in_NC
07-03 04:23 PM
Contributed $100 for the lawsuit.
Confirmation Number: 40W931175C853351T.
Confirmation Number: 40W931175C853351T.
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pappu
02-01 10:17 AM
Immigration Voice is making every effort to allow for members to be part of this advocacy effort (http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum85-action-items-for-everyone/1901186-action-item-advocacy-days-in-washington-dc-in-april-2011-a.html). IV team requests that many members plan to come to DC in April. This thread is started for members who wish to carpool or donate air miles or for DC/MD members to host others. Please use this thread to connect with each other.
However, for reasons beyond our control if members cannot do so, please contribute monetarily (http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum85-action-items-for-everyone/1904554-action-item-advocacy-day-contributions.html#post2305081).
Sukhwinder is coordinating the efforts on carpool and hosting options.
Members who wish to carpool please post on the thread as well as send an email to Sukhwinder - 2011carpool@gmail.com
Vinay is coordinating the efforts on airmiles, people wishing to donate air miles or request help for using the air miles, please PM vin13.
Poster to spread the word.. (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/images/a/a7/Myposter.pdf)
Thank you.
However, for reasons beyond our control if members cannot do so, please contribute monetarily (http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum85-action-items-for-everyone/1904554-action-item-advocacy-day-contributions.html#post2305081).
Sukhwinder is coordinating the efforts on carpool and hosting options.
Members who wish to carpool please post on the thread as well as send an email to Sukhwinder - 2011carpool@gmail.com
Vinay is coordinating the efforts on airmiles, people wishing to donate air miles or request help for using the air miles, please PM vin13.
Poster to spread the word.. (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/images/a/a7/Myposter.pdf)
Thank you.
more...
webm
03-17 01:14 PM
Category: EB3 India
PD: Oct 2001
140 AD:Sep,2005
485 RD:06/25/2007
PD: Oct 2001
140 AD:Sep,2005
485 RD:06/25/2007
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speddi
07-18 10:01 AM
my application reached texas center on july 2nd at 10.23am .. I called USCIS today and the rep said they didnt enter the information into the system..he said it might take upto 30 days to start giving receipt notices because of the load of applications
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battineni
08-10 02:23 PM
I feel frustrated at some peoples' unwillingness to admit that EB3 needs IV's help now more than ever. They are saying that nothing much can be done for EB3, as INS merely corrected its wrong interpretation in visa allocation
But, if we are all willing to put our hearts and minds to it we can surely come up with new ideas that will help our cause. Surely, laws are written so that justice can happen. So if justice is not happening, the law would have some answer, somewhere.
Let me put forward my idea.
The INA language says that until EB2 is not current, there will be no spillover to EB3. Agreed. But I would contend that this statement is on a year to year basis. That is, if in the year 2002 (for example) all EB2 has been satisfied, then the spillovers should go to year 2002 EB3.
Is this something IV can point out and fight for? Can EB3 members put their money and efforts in this direction? Let me know if this sounds worthwhile
I'm with you...!!
But, if we are all willing to put our hearts and minds to it we can surely come up with new ideas that will help our cause. Surely, laws are written so that justice can happen. So if justice is not happening, the law would have some answer, somewhere.
Let me put forward my idea.
The INA language says that until EB2 is not current, there will be no spillover to EB3. Agreed. But I would contend that this statement is on a year to year basis. That is, if in the year 2002 (for example) all EB2 has been satisfied, then the spillovers should go to year 2002 EB3.
Is this something IV can point out and fight for? Can EB3 members put their money and efforts in this direction? Let me know if this sounds worthwhile
I'm with you...!!
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mhathi
06-11 11:52 AM
Sent early this morning, then resent after Pappu's message.
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DDD
03-14 12:06 AM
If ya'll do like a character model contest next time, I think I will be in. But we will need like a 4 week due date...lol. Good job all.
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same_old_guy
07-09 04:38 PM
newbee7 is right.
Either the security clearance/FBI name check was COMPLETE or NOT. There is nothing as "would-be-done-shortly-for-sure" !
Bottom-line, if it can be proved in a court of law that USCIS approved cases without security clearance, there is a solid ground for the suit. It's against the law and it undermines the national security concerns.
Second, USCIS working in bad faith when they rushed to allocate all the quota just to avoid new I-485 applications. It clearly has "intentional" written all over it.
Third, I saw somewhere an excerpt from INA law that there is a limit on how many visa number can be allocated in a month. As per that clause, USCIS broke the law.
Fourth, there is a solid ground to sue USCIS for the expense to say the least. People has to pay a whole lot of things including lawyer, medical, photo etc. Time and effort spent on that is no less.
Either the security clearance/FBI name check was COMPLETE or NOT. There is nothing as "would-be-done-shortly-for-sure" !
Bottom-line, if it can be proved in a court of law that USCIS approved cases without security clearance, there is a solid ground for the suit. It's against the law and it undermines the national security concerns.
Second, USCIS working in bad faith when they rushed to allocate all the quota just to avoid new I-485 applications. It clearly has "intentional" written all over it.
Third, I saw somewhere an excerpt from INA law that there is a limit on how many visa number can be allocated in a month. As per that clause, USCIS broke the law.
Fourth, there is a solid ground to sue USCIS for the expense to say the least. People has to pay a whole lot of things including lawyer, medical, photo etc. Time and effort spent on that is no less.
more...
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desi3933
02-11 07:36 PM
I actually was saying I agreed w you. Read my post again... I was trying to say a few things over and above...
Aside from that, I have questioned Ron's correctness on this particular issue well before you produced that data.
Also if people somehow do not want to pay attention to facts then so be it.. Why be rude?
>> Why be rude
My apologies if my post reflected that. My intention was never that.
.
Aside from that, I have questioned Ron's correctness on this particular issue well before you produced that data.
Also if people somehow do not want to pay attention to facts then so be it.. Why be rude?
>> Why be rude
My apologies if my post reflected that. My intention was never that.
.
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smartboy75
07-11 12:47 PM
source: www.immigration-law.com
07/11/2008: Indian EB-2 Visa Number in Visa Bulletin August 2008 and Anticipated Expedited Adjudication of Their I-485 Applications to Prevent EB 2008 Visa Number Waste
The movement of the EB-2 visa numbers for Indians is indeed a very good news in that it sounds that the USCIS intends to take out the visa numbers for them before the end of September 2008 as best as they can and attempt to adjudicate the applications before the new fiscal year starts on October 1, 2008. Obviously, there must be a large number of EB-2 cases which were filed during the July 2007 Visa Bulletin fiasco whose priority date is June 1, 2006 or earlier date. It appears that the USCIS has been working hard to get these cases ready for adjudication while their visa numbers are availalbe so that the agency prevents the visa number for FY 2008 from being wasted. Please stay tuned to this web site for this remarkable turn of the events.
07/11/2008: Indian EB-2 Visa Number in Visa Bulletin August 2008 and Anticipated Expedited Adjudication of Their I-485 Applications to Prevent EB 2008 Visa Number Waste
The movement of the EB-2 visa numbers for Indians is indeed a very good news in that it sounds that the USCIS intends to take out the visa numbers for them before the end of September 2008 as best as they can and attempt to adjudicate the applications before the new fiscal year starts on October 1, 2008. Obviously, there must be a large number of EB-2 cases which were filed during the July 2007 Visa Bulletin fiasco whose priority date is June 1, 2006 or earlier date. It appears that the USCIS has been working hard to get these cases ready for adjudication while their visa numbers are availalbe so that the agency prevents the visa number for FY 2008 from being wasted. Please stay tuned to this web site for this remarkable turn of the events.
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Macaca
09-26 11:46 AM
I just got a call from Eilene Zimmerman regarding the article and she promised me that she is working on fixing the error soon
The article is actually very well-written for H1B issues. Ask her to write a similar article about EB GC issues!
The article is actually very well-written for H1B issues. Ask her to write a similar article about EB GC issues!
TeddyKoochu
09-10 01:45 PM
If USCIS wants to do another JULY 2007 they never learnt their lession. With the Quarterly/annual quota I dont think USCIS legally can make EB2 current. I hate another JULY 2007 for sure.
I would welcome another Jul 07 atleast it gives all EB2 / EB3 to be able to file for their 485's. This may not be very likely I agree with you. I can feel your pain with your PD but as Sumggymba has also said that it is extremely beneficial to be able to file for 485 and have EAD / AP.
I believe that what may happen when EB2-I/C preadjudicated numbers get exhausted is Option # 2) Keep accepting applications in a controlled manner so as to approve in quarter or year because this is what happened for EB2 ROW; again this is my personal guess / assumption, Iam not an expert on the INA or the law. Also those who have not been able to file for I485 cannot be kept in a endless denial with the preadjudicated numbers exhausted I think the chance will come for EB2 I/C either by Sep 2011 or latest by Jul 2012.
I would welcome another Jul 07 atleast it gives all EB2 / EB3 to be able to file for their 485's. This may not be very likely I agree with you. I can feel your pain with your PD but as Sumggymba has also said that it is extremely beneficial to be able to file for 485 and have EAD / AP.
I believe that what may happen when EB2-I/C preadjudicated numbers get exhausted is Option # 2) Keep accepting applications in a controlled manner so as to approve in quarter or year because this is what happened for EB2 ROW; again this is my personal guess / assumption, Iam not an expert on the INA or the law. Also those who have not been able to file for I485 cannot be kept in a endless denial with the preadjudicated numbers exhausted I think the chance will come for EB2 I/C either by Sep 2011 or latest by Jul 2012.
paskal
12-26 04:30 PM
amsterdam is visa free- thank NW/KLM for it!
I hear Milan is too - Alitalia
I hear Milan is too - Alitalia